References in science literature
for anthropogenic causes of climate change (global warming):
First 100 results of a Google Scholar search returning "about 53,700" citations
This
is an objective check on Republican Representative Tom McClintock's
claims of scientific evidence contradicting anthropogenic
(human-caused) climate change: Specifically, global warming. This check
uses Google Scholar, which is entirely automated Its heuristics are
designed to match search strings with document content, not to weight
choices according to value judgments. This can reasonably be expected
to produce either no bias or at least less bias than for
human-assisted compilations of citations. Most of the citations
found through Google Scholar are in peer-reviewed journals.
Google
Scholar search returned "about 53,700" citations from a search for
'"climate change" anthropogenic'. The detail tables linked below list all
of the
first 100 citations returned. No returned citations are omitted in
order to avoid biasing this study. An appropriate overall summary of
the Google search, quoted from a citation for "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change", by Naomi Oreskes is this, with boldface, color, and underscoring added on this web page added to emphasize the significant summary message:
"Policy-makers and the public who are not members of the relevant
research community have had to form opinions about the reality of
global climate change on the basis of often
conflicting descriptions provided by the media regarding the level of
scientific certainty attached to studies of climate. In this Essay, Oreskes analyzes the existing scientific literature to show that there is a robust consensus that anthropogenic global climate change is occurring. Thus, despite claims sometimes made by some groups that there is not good evidence that Earth's climate
is being affected by human activities, the scientific community is in
overwhelming agreement that such evidence is clear and persuasive."
Short Summary:
- 79 cited references recognize anthropogenic causes of climate change in either or both of two ways.
-- 43 citations report original research results supporting anthropogenic causes
-- 42 citations or more indicate acceptance of findings from other research.
- 21 cited references were not applicable to the question of anthropogenic causes.
- 0 cited refecences (none) reported evidence contradicting anthropogenic causes of
climate change or attributing change only to natural variability.
|
One
of two alternative conclusions case from a 1990 publication was a
possible lack of correlation for specific climate characteristics with
anthropogenic factors. This situation was clarified later in the 1990s
by additional research which found that previously-ignored
anthropogenic aerosol emissions, especially of
sulfates, moderated the rate of warming due to anthropogenic
greenhouse
gases.
The
count cited above for citations indicating acceptance of findings from
other research probably is substantially understated. Most citations
that I classified as reporting their own findings for anthropogenic
causes probably also refer to other research with similar findings. In
skimming citations and original source materials I usually did not....
Columns in the table and their meanings are:
- "Yes/reports
findings:" The publication reports research results in which one part
of the content involves evaluation of whether climate change as a whole
or one circumstance related to climate is partially or totally due to
anthropogenic factors (human-induced causes).
- "Yes/only
references findings": The publication
does not directly evaluate anthropogenic causes, but recognizes their
existence by referring to such causes. This usually is evident in the
publication's References section. The most common class of such
publications evaluates some aspect of the impact of climate change.
- "No"
refers to a publication which found no evidence for climate change
involving anthropogenic factors instead of purely natural factors. Only
one publication, from 1990, was clearly in this class.
- "NA"
(Not Applicable) refers to a variety of results. Some only
measure an aspect of the extent of cimate change, without regard to its
cause. Some address needed responses, without regard to the cause. Some
are tightly focussed studies of particular factors, such as the
(relative) radiative cooling effects of sulfate aerosols. Some have a
topic unrelated to science, such as structure and operation of
ogranizations addressing global warming. Another class is citations to
material not available on the web: Google Scholar includes citation
entries for material only in print, as well as citations to printed
material which is only partially available through Google Books. Thas
partial availability witholds content in order to avoid violation of
copyrights. "NA" can also mean that content in an Abstract is
insufficient to classify the publication and that the full publication
is available only after payment of a fee.
Table call eackground colors reflect general significance of a citation:
- Pink: Tends to support anthropogenic factors as a cause for warming.
- Green: Either finds no evidence for anthropogenic factors or identifies anthropogenic causes for cooling.
- Yellow: Reports mixed or inconclusive results.