Basic question #3: Are our climate models good enough
to predict future trends fairly well? |
Exhibit 3: Long term correlation of temperature
with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels |
This is an updated copy of a graph originally published by Dr. James
Hansen in 1988 based on work in 1987, comparing predictions of three
climate models and overlaying actual data in red. Dr. Hansen suggested
that Scenariou B seemed to be the most likely of these three
and updated the graph a decade later to show observed data through
1998. The author of www.sierrafoot.org overlaid additional
observed data through year 2005 with a trace extracted from a graph on
giss.nasa.gov and manually retouched graphic artifacts.
Original source: Climate model
calculations carried out in 1987 (Hansen, J., I. Fung, A. Lacis, D.
Rind, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, and P. Stone,
J. Geophys. Res. 93,
9341-9364, 1988). Reproduced on the NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studdies web site in an education note by James Hansen, published on
the web in January, 1999
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/
This is an updated copy of a graph
originally published by Dr. James
Hansen, showing results of work in 1987 to compare predictions of three
climate models, overlaying actual data in red. Dr. Hansen suggested
that Scenario B seemed to be the most likely of these three. In 1998 he
updated the graph to show additional observed data since 1987.
Additional observed data through 2005 was added in this rendition on this web page using a blue line.
The 1999-2005 trace was extracted graphically from a newer graph on
www.giss.nasa.gov and was transformed to the same scale as Dr. Hansen's
graph before merging the two images. The red line reproduced in the 1999-2005 plot is a 5-year running average, as rendered in the newer GISS graph..
