The Truth about El Dorado Hills Cityhood:
Straight Answers to Claims of Measure P opponents



Details:  Growth rates and city fiscal viability

Opponents' claim:
300% as many building permits
as normal have to be issued. Do we want to build up EDH that quick?

Short answer:
Truth: No additional building permits are needed. Even in the analysis for 25% slower growth than we already have, the city can maintain the level of services provided by the county and still have a budget surplus.

Some additional details:

Growth
dwelling units Per Year
Statistic Source References
1,199 El Dorado Hills Fire District assessment of actual growth rate,
averaged over the last 5 years.
(1,032 single family homes, 167 apartments)
EDH Fire
2004 Annual Report
pages. 8, 11
765 CFA assessment of actual growth rate
(695 single family homes, 70 units of multi-family housing)
The CFA forecasts the city to be fiscally viable at this growth rate and current levels of service..
CFA
pages 32, 21
574 CFA assessment of growth 25% below current level.
The CFA forecasts the city to be fiscally viable at this growth rate and current levels of service.
CFA
pages 32, 21;
11, E-2, E-3, E-4
900 Opponents' claim of new housing growth required by CFA to avoid city bankruptcy. This number appears only in Table A-6, which postulates a development schedule for modeling purposes.

The schedule uses 900 new homes per year through calendar year 2009 (the first 3 1/2 years of operation as an incorporated city), then 450 homes per year through calendar year 2014. The result is a total of 5,400 single family homes in 9 years, an average of 600 homes per year. This is even slightly more conservative than the CFA's basic extrapolation of a growth rate of 695 single family homes per year.

Use of this simple two-step model of growth rates by EPS involves analytical considerations which are referenced only briefly in the CFA Final Report Given development schedules for buildout of the Serrano Specific Plan area and the Valley View Specific Plan area, projection of high growth in early years and slower growth later appears reasonable. The rates used in the CFA are extremely conservative when compared with the Fire District's statistics. They are also conservative with respect to references not cited here.
CFA
page A-7
300 Expected normal growth rate inferred from opponent's claim that building permits must triple in order to support growth at the rate of 900 new homes per year. No source other than opponents' statements cites this statistic. This is in fact a factor of 4 smaller than the Fire District's reports of annual growth rates over the past 5 years. None

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