The Truth about El Dorado Hills Cityhood:
Straight Answers to Claims of Measure P opponents



Details:  Retail growth and city fiscal viability

Opponents' claim:
2.5 million s.f. retail spaces have to be rushed out

Short answer:
Truth:  The CFA forecast for city budget surpluses is based on 660,000 sf of new retail space between 2004 and 2014. In fact, Town Center already has entitlements for a million square feet.

Some additional details:

Retail Growth,
Square Feet 
Statistic Source References
660,000 CFA estimate of retail growth in square feet, from 2004 through 2014
The CFA forecasts the city to be fiscally viable at this growth rate and current levels of service.
CFA
pages 24, 32, 57, A-7
1,010,000 CFA alternative estimate for sensitivity analysis for higher commercial growth. Town Center already has commercial entitlements for this level of growth.

This level of commercial growth (350,000 feet over the base estimate) would increase city fiscal surpluses by an annual amount between $136,000 and $860,000 by 2014. It estimates that taxable sales per capita would increase from $5,800 to $7,200.
CFA
pages 24, 33, 57
1.9 million
CFA estimate for total growth in "other nonresidential" square footage between 2004 and 2014. In addition to retail, this includes uses such as industrial and non-retail commercial.
CFA
pages 33, A-7
2.6 million
CFA estimate for total growth at ultimate buildout in "other nonresidential" square footage.  In addition to retail, this includes uses such as non-retail commercial and industrial. CFA
page 33
2.5 million
Opponents' claim for size of retail space that would need to be "rushed out" for city fiscal viability.

Nothing in the CFA substantiates this. In fact, this is 3.8 times the number actually cited in the CFA (660,000 sq ft) for retail growth from 2004 through 2014.
None

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