"P" is not for "Pennies"
Opponents
of Measure P, El Dorado Hills incorporation as a city, showed this
excerpt from the CFA (Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis):
The truth is that this is the level of development given to El Dorado Hills by the County, mainly in Specific Plan Development Agreements.
Here's what the County's 2004 General Plan's
EIR (Environmental Impact Report) shows:
Notes:
The County Board of Supervisors adopted the 1996 General Plan alternative, which maximized population growth.
The CFA identified a population density of 2.93 people per housing unit in El Dorado Hills. That means that if we remain unincorporated the county-authorized growth is an ultimate population of 77,141.
This General Plan table is based on 1999 population data, as is most of the County General Plan's analysis, and the area that it recognizes as El Dorado Hills would not be precisely the new city's boundaries, but it would be close. The El Dorado Hills Fire Department 's annual report was more accurate in showing 7,297 homes in 1999, and it now shows 12,450 homes in 2004. The Fire Department's numbers show growth by 5,153 homes in 5 years, a growth rate of 1,031 homes per year. If we use the Fire Department's 2004 statistic with the General Plan's 1999 statistic it's a growth rate of 1,329 homes per year.
The opponents claim that the CFA demands 900 homes per year in new growth. Actually it conservatively forecasts 695 homes per year and found that even at 25% reduced growth (521 homes per year) the city accumulates $12 million in budget surpluses by 2015.
Here's the only reference in the CFA to a growth rate of 900 per year. This two-step projection cuts the growth rate in half, to 450 homes per year, 3 1/2 years after incorporation. This table even appears in the opponents' own mailings, in an attachment to the letter from Moni Gilmore, but of course they didn't highlight the 450 units per year numbers.
The quote of 900 per year is a conservative projection from actual current growth rate (more than 1,000 per year) -- we'ce already ahead of the CFA's forecast from 2004 data for property tax revenues. This CFA forecast becomes even more conservative in 2010 to protect against market downturns by cutting its growth rate forecast in half to 450 homes per year, just 3 1/2 years after the city incorporates.
References
The truth is that this is the level of development given to El Dorado Hills by the County, mainly in Specific Plan Development Agreements.
Under
state law development agreements expire 8 years after incorporation of
a new city. Until then developers are legally entitled to build as
permitted by these agreements.
Here's what the County's 2004 General Plan's
EIR (Environmental Impact Report) shows:
Notes:
The County Board of Supervisors adopted the 1996 General Plan alternative, which maximized population growth.
The CFA identified a population density of 2.93 people per housing unit in El Dorado Hills. That means that if we remain unincorporated the county-authorized growth is an ultimate population of 77,141.
This General Plan table is based on 1999 population data, as is most of the County General Plan's analysis, and the area that it recognizes as El Dorado Hills would not be precisely the new city's boundaries, but it would be close. The El Dorado Hills Fire Department 's annual report was more accurate in showing 7,297 homes in 1999, and it now shows 12,450 homes in 2004. The Fire Department's numbers show growth by 5,153 homes in 5 years, a growth rate of 1,031 homes per year. If we use the Fire Department's 2004 statistic with the General Plan's 1999 statistic it's a growth rate of 1,329 homes per year.
The opponents claim that the CFA demands 900 homes per year in new growth. Actually it conservatively forecasts 695 homes per year and found that even at 25% reduced growth (521 homes per year) the city accumulates $12 million in budget surpluses by 2015.
Here's the only reference in the CFA to a growth rate of 900 per year. This two-step projection cuts the growth rate in half, to 450 homes per year, 3 1/2 years after incorporation. This table even appears in the opponents' own mailings, in an attachment to the letter from Moni Gilmore, but of course they didn't highlight the 450 units per year numbers.
The quote of 900 per year is a conservative projection from actual current growth rate (more than 1,000 per year) -- we'ce already ahead of the CFA's forecast from 2004 data for property tax revenues. This CFA forecast becomes even more conservative in 2010 to protect against market downturns by cutting its growth rate forecast in half to 450 homes per year, just 3 1/2 years after the city incorporates.
References
- Page cited from opponents' "P" is not for "Pennies" mailer
- Page from El Dorado County 2004 General Plan showing Table 4-5
- Page from EDH Incorporation CFA showing Table A-6
- Entire CFA (Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis)
- 2004 General Plan documents on El Dorado County web site
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